Archive for the ‘Bubbles’ Category

Peak Hubris

February 8th, 2018 by Jason B. Vanclef

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via, In the past month, two well-known and highly respected money managers have made confident assertions about the markets. Their comments would lead one to believe that the future path of the market in the coming months is known. Sadly, many investors put blind faith in the words of high-profile, […]

by Tyler Durden Dec 12, 2017 9:16 AM One month ago, a chart from Convoy Investments went viral for showing that among all of the world’s most famous asset bubbles, bitcoin was only lagging the infamous 17th century “Tulip Mania.” One month later, the price of bitcoin has exploded even higher, and so it is time […]

by Tyler Durden Jun 27, 2017 3:40 PM Presented with little comment… Top-Down… Bottom-Up… A rare one-time event has created the final big buying opportunity at such a low price.   Bonds ain’t buying it…   Commodities have given up hope…   But then there’s this…   And unless The Fed, ECB, and/or BoJ step […]

by  May 28, 2017 2:53 PM With one bank after another – including Goldman, JPM and BofA – quietly urging investors in recent weeks to head for the exits in a time when the Fed is not only hiking rates but warning about “vulnerabilities from elevated asset positions“, over the weekend the latest bank […]

by Tyler Durden Mar 14, 2017 9:33 AM The last time Robert Shiller heard stock-market investors talk like this in 2000, it didn’t end well for the bulls. As Bloomberg reports, [4] Shiller says when markets are as buoyant as they are now, resisting the urge to pile in is hard regardless of what else […]

Mar 5, 2017 1:39 PM Via, [4] On Friday, I penned: [5]  “The question that must be answered is just how much of the benefit from these fiscal proposals have already been priced in perfection? What happens if tax reform is less than anticipated? Or infrastructure spending is cut from $1 Trillion to $500 […]

Published: Mar 2, 2017 3:28 p.m. ET By ShawnLanglois This market climate is nothing like we saw during the dot-com hey day. By many measures, it’s actually worse, according to numbers crunched this week by 720 Global’s Michael Lebowitz. “Even though current valuation measures are not as extreme as in 1999, today’s economic underpinnings are […] Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2017 09:21:33 -0600 (Updated every 10 minutes) Shiller P/E: 29.3 (+ 0.17%) Shiller P/E is 75.4% higher than the historical mean of 16.7 Implied future annual return: -1.6% Historical low: 4.8 Historical high: 44.2 S&P 500: 2351.16 Regular P/E: 26 (historical mean: ) Prof. Robert Shiller of Yale University invented […]

by Tyler Durden Feb 18, 2017 5:50 PM Turn on any mainstream business channel (or President Trump’s tweet stream) and you will be told how ‘awesome’ everything is going to be… look at stocks, look at sentiment surveys, look at consumer confidence, look at small business optimism. There is two small problems with all of this… […]

by Feb 9, 2017 3:40 PM Despite the constant clamor of money-on-the-sidelines (which Cliff Asness has summarily dismissed as being idiotic) about to take stocks on their next leg higher, and near-record high bullish investor sentiment, it appears institutional selling is doing nothing to affect the ‘euphoric’ levels of risk-to-reward in the markets. Full […]