Italian 50 year bond follow up – 50 years and 2.85%

Zerohedg.com 10-4-16

What is the world thinking!!!!!

With true CPI inflation running around 6%. That means putting $100 into these 50 year bonds will result in a loss of approximately 3% per year.

When you are finally able to pull your money out in 50 long years.

$100 invested today will be worth $438.

The cost of $100 of real stuff today in 50 years will be around $1842.

Thus you have lost 77% of your purchasing power.

You would think no one would be stupid enough to take this deal. Silly us, of the $5 billion offered, Almost 4X bids came in, or approximately $19 Billion were rushing to buy them.

Italy 1 : Desperate for yield and no foresight Consumer 0

PS: A bond drops as a percentage roughly the duration of its maturity in years. If the 10 year treasury goes up 1%, these 50 year bonds will lose approximately 50% of their value. The poor buyer of these bonds being told they can sell anytime will have a big lump to swallow when, not if, rates go up and they are looking at their portfolio cut in half.

 

The global search for yield continued this morning, when as reported yesterday, Italy was set to price its first ever super-long bond in the form of 50 year paper. According to Bloomberg, the issue size will be set at €5 billion, but what is more impressive is that with €18.5 billion in orders, it will be nearly 4x oversubscribed. According to the WSJ, the bonds are expected to price at a yield of around 2.85% but could price at a lower yield, depending on investor demand.

The terms of the offering are as follows, per Bloomberg:

• Order books over EU18.5b (incl. EU2.4b JLM interest): Leads.
• Guidance was BTPS 2.7% 3/2047 +54 area from IPT +mid/high 50s
• Issuer: Republic of Italy
• Ratings: Baa2/BBB-/BBB+
• Format: Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali (Reg S in dematerialised book entry form), 144a eligible, CACs
• Maturity: March 1, 2067
• Settlement: Oct. 11, 2016
• Coupon: Fixed, s.a., act/act, full first
• Denoms: 1k/1k
• Bookrunners: Banca IMI, BNP, GS (DM and B&D), HSBC, JPM, UniCredit

Once priced, Italy will become the latest nation to issue super-long bonds this year, following sovereigns including Belgium, France, Ireland and Spain in taking advantage of the historically low interest rates spurred by central bank stimulus. Italy’s Treasury announced the issuance “after a thorough market analysis,” it said in a statement on Monday, Bloomberg reported earlier.

Belgium and Spain have both sold debut 50-year bonds in public markets this year, with each raising €3 billion. France, which has sold long-dated bonds in the past, also raised €3 billion in new 50-year debt. Meanwhile, Ireland and Belgium have both sold €100 million of 100-year bonds in privately placed deals this year.

“Demand for these ultralong bonds seems to be very strong at the moment,” said Jakob Christensen, chief analyst at Danske.Spain’s 2066 bonds, which were sold with a yield of 3.493% in May, now yield 2.55%, according to Tradeweb.